Is Now A Good Time To Buy A House In Australia? The Risk Of Waiting For Prices To Bottom Out

August 5, 2026

Some buyers are holding off, hoping property prices fall further before they commit. It sounds like a sensible plan. In practice, it can leave you worse off than if you'd bought sooner.

Quick Answer & The Short Version

Is now a good time to buy a house in Australia? For most buyers who are financially ready, yes, and here's why. Some heat has genuinely come out of the market, giving buyers more room to negotiate and less pressure to rush a decision. But no analyst, bank, or buyer ever knows a market has bottomed out until well after the fact. At Osinski Finance, we speak with Perth buyers every week who are weighing exactly this decision, and the pattern is consistent: the ones who wait for a signal that never arrives usually end up paying more, not less, further down the track.

Why Home Buyers Feel Less Pressure Right Now

It's no secret that some of the heat is coming out of the property marke t. Buyers are now under less pressure to make a rushed decision, and more homes are coming onto the market, giving buyers greater choice than they've had in years.

That's exactly the backdrop that gets people asking “should I buy a house now or wait?” It's a fair question. But holding off in the hope of catching prices at their lowest point is a high-risk strategy, and it can work against the very buyers trying to play it safe.

House Price Forecast Australia: What The Latest Data Shows

A genuine house price forecast right now looks less like a single national trend and more like a patchwork of local stories. Home prices are shifting downward or levelling off in some capitals, mainly on the back of interest rate pressure, stretched affordability, and tighter investor tax rules. But these are far from "fire sale" conditions.

As a guide, June saw values fall in Sydney (down 1.2%), Melbourne (1.0%) and Canberra (0.6%), Cotality data shows. Meanwhile prices continued to climb across Brisbane (up 0.3%), Perth (0.7%), Darwin (1.4%) and Hobart (0.6%), as well as regional markets (up 0.3%). In Adelaide, values held steady for the month.

How home values move from here is genuinely unclear, and even the experts don't agree. What we can say with confidence is that no one rings a bell to announce prices have bottomed out.

No One Rings A Bell When Prices Bottom Out

This is where buyers who put their plans on the back burner, expecting further price falls, run into trouble. Waiting can mean facing more competition if other buyers pile into the "weak" market, potentially forcing prices back up again. It can also mean missing out on a property that ticks every box, simply because you thought you might find something a little cheaper in a few months.

The Risk Of Trying To Outsmart The Market

Right now there's no shortage of property price predictions doing the rounds. But past events show forecasts can be wrong, sometimes wildly so.

In the early days of COVID, some tipsters suggested property values could drop by 10%, or even 20%. In reality, home prices rose 24.6% within two years of the pandemic starting. That gap between a confident house price forecast and what Australia's market actually did next is exactly the trap buyers fall into when they try to time a bottom that only becomes obvious in hindsight.

Today's situation is clearly different, but the basic rule still holds. We usually only know home prices have reached a low point after the event, once it's too late to buy at that price.

What's Still Driving Prices Higher In The Background

Several of the main factors that have driven up home prices in recent years haven't gone away. Australia still faces a shortage of homes for people to live in, and the population continues to grow. Both of those forces put a structural floor under values, even while month-to-month numbers cool in some cities.

Holding out to buy at the exact lowest point may sound sensible on paper. In practice, it's a lot easier said than done, and it tends to rely on good luck far more than good timing.

Are You Financially Ready To Buy?

Whether it's actually a good time to buy has less to do with the market and more to do with you. Before locking in a decision either way, it's worth being honest about a few things:

Your deposit. Do you have a genuine deposit saved, plus a buffer for stamp duty and other upfront costs?
Your income stability. Is your employment secure enough to comfortably service a mortgage for the long haul?
Your repayment buffer. Could you absorb a rate rise or an unexpected expense without financial stress?
Your reason for waiting. Is it tied to something specific and actionable, like a pay rise or paying down other debt, or is it just waiting for the market to feel more comfortable?

If most of those line up, the question of whether I buy a house now or wait starts to answer itself. Timing the market is close to impossible. Getting your own finances in order is entirely within your control, and that's the part worth focusing your energy on.

What Waiting Could Actually Cost You

Here's the part that often gets missed. While a buyer waits and saves a bit more for their deposit, the market doesn't stand still around them. Over the past five years, national home prices have increased by more than 34%. Those kinds of long-term gains can easily eclipse the short-term savings a softer market might offer today, particularly if a buyer's extra savings are outpaced by how far the property they want has moved in price.

So rather than trying to second-guess the market, it's usually worth focusing on what you can actually control, and that's your own buying plans and your own readiness. Today's market already offers improved choice, along with sellers who may be more open to negotiating on price than they were in the peak of the boom. Both of those are genuinely in a buyer's favour right now.

Key Takeaways

Some heat has come out of the property market, giving buyers more choice and less pressure to rush.
No one, including the experts, can reliably call the exact bottom of a market until well after it's passed.
Waiting for a "weak market" can backfire if other buyers pile in and push prices back up, or if the right property sells while you're still waiting.
COVID-era forecasts of double-digit price falls were wrong by a wide margin; home prices rose instead.
A housing shortage and continued population growth are still putting a floor under Australian property values.
Being financially ready (a solid deposit, stable income, and a repayment buffer) matters more than picking the "perfect" moment to buy.
Long-term price growth has historically outpaced the short-term savings some buyers hope to gain by waiting.

Get In Touch With Osinski Finance

Osinski Finance help Perth home buyers secure the right home loan, guide first home buyer s through every step of the process, and support property investors with tailored finance solutions. With access to nearly 100 lenders nationwide, we can help you find a loan that suits your goals.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is now a good time to buy a house in Australia?

For financially prepared buyers, yes. Prices are cooling in some capitals and still rising in others, so the more important question is whether your deposit, income, and repayment buffer are ready, not what the market is doing.

Will house prices drop further in Australia?

It's genuinely uncertain. Sydney, Melbourne, and Canberra saw small monthly declines recently, while Perth, Brisbane, Darwin, Hobart, and regional markets kept growing, and no one can say in advance when any softening will end.

Should I buy a house now or wait for prices to fall further?

This comes down to your finances more than the market. If your deposit, income, and repayment buffer are solid, waiting to time a lower price risks missing the property you want or facing more competition later.

Will the Australian property market crash?

A crash would need a severe shock, like a sharp rise in unemployment or major credit tightening, on top of already high rates. Most forecasts point to cooling in some cities rather than a broad crash, backed by an ongoing housing shortage and population growth.

What's actually driving Australian house prices at the moment?

Interest rates, housing supply, population growth, and lending settings all play a part. Higher rates reduce what buyers can borrow, while the supply shortage and population growth keep supporting values.

Is it better to buy in a rising market or a cooling one?

A cooling market usually means less competition and more room to negotiate, while a rising market can mean paying a premium and rushing decisions. Neither is inherently better; it depends on your readiness and how long you'll hold the property.

How do I know if I'm financially ready to buy?

You're likely ready if you have a genuine deposit plus a buffer for costs, stable income, and room to absorb a rate rise. If you're waiting on a specific goal rather than just hoping the market feels better, you're probably closer than you think.

Should I wait for interest rates to fall before buying?

Rates are only part of the equation, since a rate fall can also bring more buyer competition. Getting pre-approved now lets you act when the right property comes up, instead of waiting on a rate move with no fixed timeline.

How much can I actually afford to borrow?

This depends on your income, expenses, debts, and each lender's servicing criteria, which all vary. Rather than guessing, it's worth getting a clear picture from a broker who can compare your situation across multiple lenders.

How can a mortgage broker help me decide when to buy?

A broker can't predict the market any better than anyone else, but they can clarify what you do control, your borrowing power, pre-approval, and loan options, turning "should I wait" into a practical next step.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.

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