What Are the Chances of Another RBA Interest Rate Cut This Year?

The Reserve Bank has kept the cash rate steady, and several of the big banks have wound back calls for more cuts in 2025. Here is what that could mean for your home loan.

It looks like the RBA rate cut party may be over for 2025.

After holding in September, the Reserve Bank of Australia is taking a wait-and-see approach to assess how the earlier reductions in February, May, and August are flowing through the economy.

Pair that with a lift in inflation in October, and plenty of economists have cooled on the idea of further cuts this year.

Let’s unpack the moving parts and what it could mean for your repayments.

RBA interest rate cut: where things stand

There is a growing view that we may have seen the last of the RBA interest rate cuts for 2025.

NAB has stepped back from earlier calls for possible cuts in November and February and now expects the cash rate to stay on hold until May 2026.

Commonwealth Bank has also put a line through a November move. Their view is that a drop in the cash rate is unlikely before February next year.

ANZ no longer expects additional cuts in 2025, pointing instead to February as the next plausible option.

Westpac is the lone standout still allowing for a 0.25% move in December. A pre-Christmas cut would be welcome news for borrowers, but it is far from locked in.

The big banks shift on rba interest rate cuts

If you were hoping for a cheaper rate before the holiday season, these forecasts may feel like a setback.

Here is the flip side.

Activity in the mortgage market has been lively, and you may not need to wait for the New Year to see savings.

With the right approach, you could bring forward your own rate relief.

What if the next RBA rate cut takes longer than hoped?

Even with the cash rate parked, lenders are still competing hard for quality borrowers. In other words, you do not need to wait for an RBA interest rate cut to see movement.

According to Mozo, several lenders trimmed variable rates in September despite no change to the cash rate that month.

Mozo also notes that a borrower with a $660,000 loan could save about $100 per month, or $1,195 a year, by switching from a 6.10% rate to 5.85%.

That is a clear hint to check what you are currently paying.

Canstar adds that a competitive rate for owner-occupiers right now sits around 5.25%.

Lenders are moving even without an rba rate cut

In a competitive market, banks and non-banks sharpen rates and cashback offers to win business. Even if the next central bank move lands later, you can still benefit from lender competition now.

Start with a quick audit:

• Confirm your current rate, comparison rate and revert rate
• Check fees, offset, redraw and break costs
• Compare like-for-like against today’s sharper deals

A small rate drop can make a meaningful difference over a large balance.

Could you give yourself a rate cut?

If you were waiting for the RBA interest rate cuts to move again this year, it may be time to rethink the plan.

Instead of sitting tight, consider taking control of your own home loan rate through a refinance or a repricing request with your current lender. Many borrowers secure a better deal simply by asking their bank to match market offers. If that fails, a clean refinance to a sharper product can do the job.

Run the numbers, line up your documents, and check that the features match how you actually use your loan. If you pay extra regularly, an offset account may be worth prioritising. If you want certainty, weigh a fixed or split rate. If cash flow is tight, examine fees and any honeymoon rates that step up later.

Take Control of Your Home Loan with Osinski Finance

Osinski Finance offers home loans, investing in a property, and refinancing your home loan. Instead of waiting for the next RBA interest rate cut, make your move today. We review your current loan, compare options across major and specialist lenders, and negotiate directly to secure a sharper deal. We set out costs, timelines, and next steps in plain language so you can cut your rate, lower monthly repayments, and move forward with confidence. 

Contact us to get started before the next rate cuts even arrive.

Disclaimer: The content of this article is general in nature and is presented for informative purposes. It is not intended to constitute tax or financial advice, whether general or personal nor is it intended to imply any recommendation or opinion about a financial product. It does not take into consideration your personal situation and may not be relevant to your circumstances. Before taking any action, consider your own particular circumstances and seek professional advice. This content is protected by copyright laws and various other intellectual property laws. It is not to be modified, reproduced or republished without prior written consent.